Nordic Video Entertainment Market to Close in on $7 Billion by Year End

Video entertainment markets in the Nordics are gearing up for a period of solid and sustained growth, according to a new raft of reports from Futuresource Consulting. The firm’s latest round of research shows the region achieved US$6.3 billion in video entertainment revenues in 2021, and is forecast to reach nearly US$7 billion in 2022, rising to US$8.5 billion by 2026.

Pay-TV takes Lion’s Share, but SVoD Rising Fast

“All eyes are on SVoD,” says Joanna Wright, Senior Market Analyst, Futuresource Consulting. “While Pay-TV currently captures the majority of consumer spend across the region, SVoD is the driver behind new growth, despite slowdown in the sector. We’re seeing people reach for their purses and wallets for D2C services like Disney+, the newly relaunched version of HBO Nordics, HBO Max and the likes of Paramount+ and Discovery+ as well.

“Whilst international brands have performed well in recent years, local players are also making a significant market impact. Viaplay is closing the gap on the leader Netflix in all markets, making big investment plays within the Nordics, as well as extending its reach into other territories. Meanwhile, TV2 Play in Denmark and Norway, and CMore in Sweden and Finland, continue to perform well and stake their claim in the market, thanks to deep catalogues of premium local content.”

Futuresource expects SVoD in the Nordics to generate US$2.6 billion in 2022, with more than two million net additional subscriptions, taking the total subscriber base to 19.5 million across the region. In terms of spend, Sweden takes the top spot, accounting for 30% of total revenues. Denmark is close behind at 29%, with Norway and Finland taking 26% and 15% respectively.

A Return to Growth for Box Office

Nordic Box Office is also beginning its ascent, on track to return to 75% of pre-pandemic revenue levels in 2022. The majority of cinemas have reopened, and a high incidence of vaccination and booster uptake in all four markets is encouraging the rapid rollback of covid restrictions.

PVoD and PEST have also both performed relatively well from a limited number of titles. Moving forward, Futuresource expects further and more widespread trials, which should achieve strong uptake due to the region’s affluence and its strong appetite for new release content.

Bumper Release Slate will Bolster Transactional Video

Digital transactional video faced a challenging year in 2021, with a limited release slate, particularly from Hollywood, and this applied downward pressure to both physical and digital revenues. However, Futuresource expects a slew of new releases that will transform the market in 2022. Amazon is also yet to launch its transactional video store in the Nordics, though Sweden is tipped for a mid-year launch, with other Nordic markets being rolled out in the next wave. Due to a limited presence here, the e-commerce giant is unlikely to have the same disruptive influence on the market as seen in countries such as Spain and Italy.

“When it comes to digital transactional video, it’s not all about Hollywood,” says Wright. “Far from it. Local films performed well last year, particularly in Denmark. Oscar-winning title Druk cemented its position as the biggest EST title to date in Denmark, with big wins coming in for the likes of Riders of Justice, The North Sea and Ternet Ninja 2 as well. But Norway is the one to watch, on track to account for more than 40% of EST spend in the Nordics this year, with a digital ownership mindset already well-established across the country.”

For further information or to purchase Futuresource Consulting’s video insights reports on Denmark, Norway and Sweden, please contact leon.morris@futuresource-hq.com

About the author

Joanna Wright

^{Joanna is a senior market analyst with 15 years’ experience, working at Futuresource since 2005. Following seven years in the imaging division, Joanna joined the Entertainment Content Delivery team and is closely involved in researching, analysing and consulting on key content industry developments worldwide, with a particular focus on the digital distribution of entertainment content. Joanna graduated from the University of Bath with a BA in European Studies specialising in French and Italian.}