The combined video entertainment markets of Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland achieved total revenues of USD $7.44 billion last year, according to a new quartet of reports from Futuresource Consulting. Across the four countries, Pay-TV accounts for between 43% to 54% of revenues, and is the biggest market segment in all countries except Sweden.
Denmark takes the lion’s share of Nordic revenues, finishing the year at DKK14.97 billion, equivalent to USD $2.2 billion. According to the report, that’s an 8% increase on 2022. As well as generating 46% of the country’s revenue, Pay-TV has also helped to support the development of SVoD and transactional segments.
“While Pay-TV is currently king of the mountain, SVoD is where all the action is happening,” says Rachel Mitchell, Research Analyst, Futuresource Consulting. “Our data shows a Pay-TV CAGR of 1% out to 2028. In contrast, SVoD revenue expanded by 16% last year, and we expect it to grow by an annual average of 5% throughout the forecast period.
“In line with other strong Pay-TV markets, Denmark is enjoying the benefits of reaggregation, as bundling of SVoD platforms alongside broadband, mobile and Pay-TV services continue to take hold. We also expect the wider use of ad tiers and the introduction of further measures to reduce password sharing, which will provide an additional boost to the market.”
Futuresource notes that Danish theatrical and transactional segments saw modest increases in 2023, and the firm forecasts future growth in the lower single digits.
Taking second position, at SEK21.77 billion or USD $2.05 billion, the Swedish video entertainment market achieved 7% growth last year.
Unlike its three neighbours, SVoD is the biggest market segment in Sweden, generating 47% of total spend in 2023, and growing 11% year-on-year.
“SVoD is the main driver for video entertainment growth and has enjoyed a significant upsurge in subscribers over the last few years,” says Anastasia Budash, Lead Market Analyst, Futuresource Consulting. “And although growth is now slowing as the market matures, we’re going to see this offset by price rises and further measures to reduce password sharing. This will allow SVoD to achieve a 5% CAGR between 2024 and 2028.”
While Pay-TV lags behind SVoD, it still provides robust foundations for the Swedish market, generating more than SEK9 billion in 2023. Similar to Denmark, Pay-TV operators are deploying a raft of subscriber retention strategies to minimise cord-cutting, including bundling and aggregation. These strategies are also highly beneficial for SVoD and digital transactional segments, as they increase general consumer engagement.
The Swedish box office witnessed a strong recovery in 2023, yet still remains below the 2019 level. Attendance rose 8%, and with the inclusion of an average price increase, revenues achieved double-digit growth year-on-year. However, with serious competition from other entertainment choices, Sweden’s theatrical segment is unlikely to regain its pre-pandemic levels during the forecast period.
In revenue terms, Norway takes third position at NOK20.21 billion, equivalent to USD $1.92 billion. However, of the four Nordic countries examined, Norway exhibited the most revenue growth, achieving a 12% market expansion in 2023.
“Pay-TV provided the Norwegian market’s foundations,” says Mitchell, “generating 50% of consumer spend in 2023, while SVoD provided the majority of the growth, expanding by 30% year-on-year. This was driven by continued price increases from most SVoD platforms, plus the recent launch of the new service SkyShowTime. SVoD will continue to be the key growth driver throughout the forecast period, albeit at lower levels than 2023.”
In line with its neighbours, Norway’s box office continues to recover, with attendance growing and the average ticket price increasing. Theatrical revenue was up 11% in 2023, yet is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels for consumer spending and admissions by 2028.
Finland’s total video entertainment market revenue reached EUR1.15 billion in 2023, equivalent to USD $1.24 billion, and represented a 7% year-on-year increase. Pay-TV generated 54% of market revenue, though Futuresource expects the Pay-TV market to stagnate, remaining flat through to 2028. Any service price increases are likely to be cancelled out by a steady decline in Pay-TV households.
“Box office and SVoD are the main growth drivers here,” says Budash. “Box office was within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels last year, just 2% down on 2019 revenue. This was helped along by a surge in admissions, up an astounding 23%, alongside an average ticket price increase of 5%.
“SVoD revenues expanded 12% last year, driven by price rises across a number of the leading services, as well as a modest uplift in net subscribers. Over half of Finnish households now subscribe to at least one service, so future uptake is likely to be limited. However, despite the high saturation, we expect SVoD to generate the majority of growth in the market across our forecast period.”
Futuresource projects overall growth in Finland to slow down to a CAGR of 1.4% out to 2028. This is in contrast to 3% growth in Denmark and Sweden, and 2% in Norway. Combined, the four countries will achieve video entertainment market revenues of USD $8.48 billion in 2028.
Futuresource Consulting’s range of Nordic video entertainment reports provides detailed analysis and forecasts, allowing executives to build a comprehensive view of the current and future state of the markets in Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland. For more information or to make a purchase, please contact Ben at ben.thrussell@futuresource-hq.com.
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